Yesterday, we told you to hold off on the eulogy until the real numbers arrived. Well, the Moana opening weekend estimates are in. They did not bring good news for the mouse.
According to Variety, the live-action Moana opened to an estimated $43 million from 3,827 North American theaters. Yes, that’s a first place finish. But nobody at Disney is celebrating. The studio went into the weekend projecting a $60 million to $65 million debut. The film missed that target by a wide margin. Overseas audiences didn’t ride to the rescue either, chipping in $52 million for a $95 million global launch.
Remember, this remake carries a $250 million production budget. That’s before marketing.
A Moana Opening Weekend in Snow White Territory
Here’s the comparison Disney never wanted to hear. Per Variety, the Moana opening weekend now sits in a photo finish with 2025’s Snow White, which opened to $42 million, for the weakest debut in the studio’s entire live-action remake catalog. Snow White limped to $205 million worldwide against a similar budget. If Moana follows that path, Variety estimates the studio could eat a loss of around $100 million.
The strange part? Audiences who showed up actually liked it. The film earned an A- CinemaScore, even as critics hammered it with a 35% Rotten Tomatoes score. Catherine Laga’aia and Dwayne Johnson did their jobs. The timing may have done them in. The animated Moana 2 sailed past a billion dollars less than two years ago, and families apparently weren’t ready for a third trip beyond the reef so soon.
Beyond the Moana Box Office Opening: The Weekend Top 5
While the Moana opening weekend dominated the headlines, the rest of the chart quietly had a decent frame.
Minions & Monsters held second place with roughly $21 million, a healthy 43% dip in weekend two. That pushes the little yellow guys to about $108 million domestic, and profitability is in sight.
Toy Story 5 keeps chugging along in third with around $19 million in weekend four. The Pixar sequel recently crossed $800 million worldwide, so Disney’s weekend wasn’t all storm clouds.
Fourth place went to the weekend’s other newcomer, Evil Dead Burn, with a $15 million debut. That’s below the $24.5 million launch of 2023’s Evil Dead Rise, but against a tiny budget, the gore machine will be just fine.
And Young Washington rounded out the top 5 with about $7 million, a steep second weekend slide for the Angel Studios sleeper.
Choppy Waters Ahead
So where does Moana go from here? The good news: that A- CinemaScore suggests families who see it will spread decent word of mouth. The bad news: Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey crashes into theaters next weekend, followed by Spider-Man: Brand New Day at the end of the month. The summer isn’t going to clear a lane for a comeback.
A soft Moana opening weekend also puts fresh pressure on the studio’s remake pipeline. Disney has now watched two straight remakes open in the low $40 millions. Lilo & Stitch proved the formula can still print a billion dollars. Snow White and now Moana prove it can also burn one. The difference seems to come down to timing, and this voyage set sail far too soon.
We’ll be watching the weekday numbers to see if word of mouth can steady the ship. Do you think Moana can recover, or is Disney’s live-action era finally taking on water? Sound off below.
